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HSBC and Standard Chartered shares plummet as 'outsized' tariffs bite

2025-10-05 08:26:51 By

Shares in banking behemoths HSBC and Standard Chartered have suffered a sharp decline amidst escalating global trade tensions.

In early Monday trading, HSBC's shares dipped nearly three per cent, bringing its losses over the past five days to a staggering 15 per cent, as reported by City AM.

Standard Chartered saw an even steeper fall of nearly four per cent, with its five-day losses approaching 20 per cent.

The banks, which both have significant operations in Asia, are feeling the impact of hefty tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on Asian economies.

China has been hit with a new 34 per cent tariff, raising its total import tax to 54 per cent following Trump's 'Liberation Day' speech, where he increased the levy from an earlier 20 per cent.

In retaliation, China imposed a 34 per cent reciprocal tariff on US goods, criticising Trump's tactics as "inconsistent with international trade rules".

Additionally, Taiwan received a 34 per cent tariff and Vietnam was burdened with a 46 per cent levy.

Financial analyst William Howlett from Quilter Cheviot highlighted that banks carry some of the "biggest risks" amid the intensifying trade war.

He commented: "Fundamentally, banks are levered plays on the economies in which they operate."

Given the severe tariffs targeting Asian economies, Howlett noted it's no surprise that "the Asian banks (HSBC and Standard Chartered) have sold off the most."

John Cronin, the founder of SeaPoint insights, pointed out that HSBC and Standard Chartered are more vulnerable than their UK counterparts to tariff issues "given their dependence on global trade glows and their presence in jurisdictions that will be subject to higher tariffs than the UK."

HSBC stands as one of the top international banks in Asia, with its origins dating back to Hong Kong and Shanghai, and it covers various business segments in the region such as retail banking, wealth management, and commercial banking.

Standard Chartered primarily targets emerging markets across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, with a particular emphasis on Asia's burgeoning middle class in nations like India, China, and Indonesia by providing an array of retail services, including savings and checking accounts.

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City analysts downgrade luxury stocks as impact of Trump tariffs filter through

Deutsche Bank, the city broker, has lowered the target share price for a range of luxury firms as Trump's tariffs begin to influence analyst predictions. The broker assigned a 'Hold' rating to Richemont, LVMH, Moncler and Kering, reducing the share price for each company, as reported by City AM. "The direct impact of the tariffs is not a huge headwind in our view... However, weaker global stock markets and the broader economic uncertainty will weigh on confidence and we see this further postponing a recovery in luxury demand," analysts commented. Hermes was the sole firm to receive an upgrade, with Deutsche Bank shifting its recommendation from a 'Hold' to a 'Buy' and raising the target share price from €2,220 to €2,550 (£1,911 to £2,195). Mamta Valechha, Consumer discretionary analyst at Quilter Cheviot, stated that Hermes would benefit from its "strong pricing power and higher-end positioning" despite the inevitable single-digit price increases. "However, how the US (and global) luxury consumer responds to potentially reduced global economic growth remains unknown," Valechha added. There was a significant sell-off in luxury markets after Trump announced tariffs on April 2. Burberry, Kering, and LVMH have dropped 16.6 per cent, 16.2 per cent 12.5 per cent, respectively, since April 2. Traditionally safe bets Hermes and Ferrari have dropped 8.5 per cent and nine per cent, respectively. Analysts were initially banking on a resurgence in the luxury sector following a dip caused by the cost-of-living crisis in Europe and economic downturn in China during 2023. "It is no longer clear that the third quarter of 2024 was the nadir for luxury demand," stated analysts from Deutsche Bank. "The luxury recovery in the fourth quarter now looks likely to be the anomaly and not the trend."

Bank of England's Carolyn Wilkins highlights market discipline amid UK bond turmoil

The recent upheaval in the UK's bond market is a clear indication that the "dragons of market discipline are alive and well," according to a statement made today by Carolyn Wilkins, an external member of the Bank of England's financial policy committee (FPC). Speaking at Fitch Ratings, she acknowledged the recent instability in the gilt market, as reported by City AM. "Recently we’ve seen orderly movements in global yields as one would expect given news that markets consider relevant to the global outlook." She further noted, "There have been spikes in yields in a number of individual countries in recent years, including the UK, that indicate the dragons of market discipline are alive and well," The UK government bonds experienced a significant sell-off, largely driven by the anticipation that US interest rates would remain high for a longer period due to persistent inflation. The yield on the 10-year gilt reached 4.93 per cent, its highest level since the financial crisis. Gilt yields are closely linked to movements in the US Treasury market. Although yields have almost entirely recovered following soft economic data, the FPC remains concerned about the high levels of public debt, both in the UK and globally. "The FPC that I sit on is of the view that global sovereign debt risks are material," Wilkins stated, adding that global public debt is likely to approach 100 per cent of GDP by the end of the decade. Concerns are intensifying among market participants about the sustainability of public debt externally, which could affect the internal cost of debt servicing for the UK government, as well as for households and businesses, an expert emphasized. In recent times, a slew of commentators have sounded the alarm on the rising debt in advanced economies. Significantly, the Congressional Budget Office in the United States highlighted an alarming trend on Friday, stating that US government debt is likely to exceed its post-World War II record, a projection that's yet to account for the impact of the tax cuts introduced by Donald Trump. "The fiscal situation is daunting, the debt trajectory is unsustainable," remarked Phillip Swagel, director of the CBO, after the office published its report.

Gambit Corporate Finance toast best ever year with deals worth £500m in 2024

Gambit Corporate Finance orchestrated transactions with a value of more than £500m in 2024 in what was its best ever year. The mid-market corporate finance advisory firm, established in 1992, said that while the UK mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market experienced some turbulence last year, due to continued macroeconomic headwinds and concerns over the likelihood of significant changes to the UK tax system, its impressive growth has continued. It acted on 16 deals last year. Notable transactions included acting as lead advisor for Bridgend-based Nodor International in it becoming majority-owned by Inflexion Private Equity. Nodor is the world’s leading darts brands, with its products including Winmau dartboards and Red Dragon darts. The deal, which will accelerate the company’s global growth plans, was one of the biggest ever private equity transactions in Wales. While the value of the deal was not disclosed, it is understood to have been well north of £100m. It also advised a shareholder of Cross Hands-based leading food and beverage business Castell Howell on the disposal of a material stake in the business Clinica Baviera SA, the Spanish-quoted business and one fo the largest ophthalmology chains in Europe, also turned to Gambit on its entry into the UK market with the acquisition of Optimax. Optimax operates 19 clinics across UK major cities and specialises in eye surgery and ophthalmic services. Gambit also acted for Newport headquartered timber group Premier Forest on four acquisitions, while also advising Carmathenshire-based Shufflebottom on its acquisition by Embrace Steel Group, whic is one of the UK’s largest independent providers of steel-framed buildings for industrial and commercial sectors. Gambit said average enterprise value/Ebitda multiples were strong with solid fundamentals, with it ensuring premium valuations. It said this trend is expected to continue through 2025. Whilst there was a decline in international buyers in the UK M&A mid-market early last year, Gambit said it is experiencing increased international interest, particularly Northern European and US buyers. Gambit is the exclusive UK shareholder in Corporate Finance International (CFI), a group of global corporate finance advisory firms with 28 offices in 18 countries and some 300 fee earners. CFI enables Gambit and its clients to identify and directly access buyers, sellers and investors on a global basis. In 2024, CFI completed in excess of 100 transactions and more than 30% of these were cross border. CFI was ranked by Thomson Reuters as number 18 in Europe and in the top 30 globally for transactions up to €200 million in value. Frank Holmes, Gambit partner, said “We are very proud that Gambit achieved its best ever year in its 32 -year history, despite some turbulence in UK M&A markets. We have invested heavily in the growth of the firm and we have a team of unprecedented quality and size. This, coupled with our unmatched global reach via Corporate Finance International means that we are expecting the momentum generated in 2024 to continue." Jason Evans, partner and head of debt advisory at Gambit, said: “The abundance of capital held by private equity funds, venture capital investors, debt funds and acquisitive companies, coupled with a lowering cost of capital and more stable macroeconomic landscape is fuelling a recovery in M&A volumes and debt capital markets.

Natwest share price rockets to 10-year high as investors eye bumper 2025 growth

The share price of Natwest has soared to its highest point since February 2015 in early trading today, as investors show confidence in the bank's growth prospects for 2025. The UK lender's stock has surged by 95 per cent over the past year, marking it as one of the FTSE 100's top performers, with no signs of momentum waning, as reported by City AM. Last month, RBC analyst Benjamin Toms noted the bank's "attractive net interest income (NII) momentum" heading into 2025. NII is the differential between the interest banks earn on loans and other assets and what they pay out on deposits, with higher rates typically bolstering this income by allowing banks to charge more for lending. "The domestic banks have large structural hedges, and based on current rate expectations, we think the hedge roll benefit will more than offset the impact of rate cuts," Bank of America analysts stated. They also suggested that "Additional upside may come from higher loan growth, particularly in commercial, given the government’s growth agenda." "Natwest should be best-placed to take advantage of any UK growth" among UK banks, they continued, forecasting an annual four per cent increase in the bank's loan book. The analysts underscored Natwest's leverage to UK economic expansion, especially in the corporate and commercial sectors, due to its status as Britain's largest commercial bank. Furthermore, last summer saw Natwest expand its market presence by acquiring Sainsbury’s Bank and the residential mortgage portfolio from Metro Bank.

Saga anticipates higher profits and strong travel growth, plans to refinance £325m debt

Saga, the over-50s financial services and travel provider, has announced that it anticipates reporting an underlying profit before tax higher than previous forecasts. In a recent trading update, the company predicted that the underlying profit before tax for the last six months of 2024 would be slightly higher than the previous year, as reported by City AM. Saga's travel division is expected to report an underlying profit before tax "in the high single-digit millions", compared to the £1.5m reported in the prior year, indicating revenue growth of 15 per cent and passenger growth of nine per cent. Over the past six months, Ocean Cruise achieved a load factor of 91 per cent, three per cent ahead of the previous year, while River Cruise reported a load factor of 89 per cent, with combined ticket prices and onboard revenue per passenger amounting to £327, a total increase of 15 per cent from last year. "We continued to generate strong demand for both our cruise and travel businesses," stated Saga CEO Mike Hazell. Last month, Saga announced a 20-year partnership with Belgian insurance giant Ageas for motor and home insurance, which will see Saga’s price-comparison website, pricing, claims and customer service activities taken over by the insurer. However, earlier this week, City broker Peel Hunt downgraded Saga’s stock rating, noting that the firm faced "a refinancing hurdle" this year. The funds from the partnership with Ageas will be utilised by the firm to refinance £325m of outstanding debt by spring this year. Following the deal, Peel Hunt reduced its price target for the stock to 120p. Since the beginning of 2025, Saga’s shares have declined by over nine per cent. Looking forward, Saga reported that both Ocean Cruise and River Cruise's booked load factors are surpassing last year's figures. The company's River Cruise division is scheduled to launch a new ship, the Spirit of the Moselle, in July 2025, which will boost capacity. Currently, the booked revenue for travel stands at £126m, marking a 10 per cent increase compared to the same period last year, with 39,000 passengers booked in, an 11 per cent rise from the previous year.

Investors pile into gold as Trump's tariff turmoil continues

The price of gold has soared to another record peak, fuelled by concern over President Donald Trump's tariff strategy and a weakening dollar, leading investors towards the traditional sanctuary of precious metals. Gold's value ascended 1.5% to surpass $3,200 (£2,451) per troy ounce on Friday – an unprecedented level – as Asian markets stumbled due to the ongoing repercussions of President Trump's deferred tariff measures, as reported by City AM. Despite its status as a refuge for capital during turbulent times, the precious metal had initially been swept up in a severe sell-off amid tariff-driven market chaos. Gold spot prices experienced a remarkable increase of over 30% since the beginning of 2024 but witnessed a downturn from $3,166/oz to $2,973/oz from April 2 to April 6. Market experts believe that investors were compelled to sell their gold assets to cover margin calls from creditors. Pepperstone analyst Michael Brown pointed to the removal of the "risk premium" associated with gold after its exclusion from the postponed tariffs Trump labeled ‘Liberation Day’ as the cause of the brief dip. Nevertheless, from April 6 onward, gold has bounced back robustly, registering its most significant bi-day surge since 2020 and reaching a new all-time high. Market strategists have attributed this latest rally to the faltering US dollar – which renders the metal more accessible to buyers using other currencies – and predictions that central banks might accelerate interest rate cuts more than previously presumed to prevent an economic deceleration. This week has seen the dollar descend to its lowest level against major global currencies in a decade. Dominic Schinder of UBS Global Wealth informed Bloomberg TV that further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve would provide another "leg up" for gold, as the yield on holding cash – a common refuge amid prevalent bearish sentiment – is lower. This rally boosted London-listed gold miners, leading the FTSE 100 higher on Friday morning. Fresnillo saw an increase of approximately 5.9 per cent, while Endeavour experienced a surge of over 4.5 per cent in early trades. Brokers at Peel Hunt upgraded precious-metal-miner Fresnillo from 'hold' to 'add' in a note, suggesting that sustained high gold and silver prices would generate more cash flow at the commodities giant. "[The first quarter] saw gold and silver prices well ahead of expectations on rising market uncertainty," they noted. "The extreme US tariff announcements simply added to this uncertainty.

Former Bank of England policymaker says 'hold' rates at 4.5 per cent in May

Former Bank of England rate-setter Jonathan Haskel has indicated that current high inflation levels warrant maintaining interest rates at 4.5 per cent in May. Investors and analysts, anticipating a cut in interest rates next month to address concerns over low growth, are pricing in up to three additional reductions by year's end, as reported by City AM. However, Haskel, who served on the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) until August of the previous year, argued for a "wait and see" stance despite potential deflationary impacts from President Trump's tariffs. In conversations with City AM, Haskel remarked: "Core inflation in the UK, dominated by domestically generated service sector inflation, is above target-consistent levels," and stated, "Thus, and given the uncertainty around what the enduring tariff level will be, I would favour a 'wait and see' policy and so hold UK rates at the next meeting." February saw inflation reach 2.8 per cent, spurred by a five per cent surge in services prices, well above the Bank of England's consumer price inflation (CPI) aim of two per cent. Haskel acknowledged that the comprehensive tariffs would put a damper on economic activity and inhibit growth as global markets adjust to open trading with the US. He also agreed with current MPC members Swati Dhingra and Megan Greene that such tariffs would exert a "deflationary for the UK economy" effect on the UK economy. According to Haskel, the influx of cheap goods from countries like China, which is subject to tariffs exceeding 100%, would likely drive prices down. Nevertheless, he maintained his stance. These comments offer a glimpse into the thought process of the more hawkish MPC members, who are growing increasingly concerned about persistent inflation. Clare Lombardelli, a current MPC member, expressed uncertainty about the impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation, citing the potential for retaliatory measures from other countries. Haskel's views diverge from those of former deputy Bank governor Charlie Bean, who advocated for a rate cut of up to 50 basis points. David Blanchflower, a former rate-setter, even suggested convening an emergency meeting before May 8. Kallum Pickering of Peel Hunt, who typically takes a hawkish stance on monetary policy, argued that the Bank has an "easy" decision to cut interest rates, as high inflation is no longer a concern due to tariffs. "We can worry a lot less about inflation, and therefore we can start easing a little bit faster," he told City AM. "Growth is likely to be weaker, so rates need to come down." Pickering suggested that Andrew Bailey should advise the Prime Minister to refrain from imposing reciprocal tariffs, thereby avoiding a near-term inflation shock. He also stated that predictions of inflation potentially reaching as high as 3.75 per cent were not "irrelevant". "It's not even worth paying attention to economic data that is telling you about the economy before the US dramatically escalated tariffs. It's just, it's redundant." Pickering further suggested that the elevated gilt yields, which are increasing borrowing costs, were a consequence of fears surrounding low growth and these changes provided further justification for the Bank to reduce interest rates. "In a strange way, if the Bank of England were actually to go a little bit quicker with rate cuts and support growth expectations, it would probably have the effect of reducing bond yields in the long run because markets would worry less about recession risk." Central banks around the world are rapidly responding to the impacts of a full-blown trade war. Policymakers in India and New Zealand cut interest rates on Wednesday. Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra said "concerns on trade frictions are coming true." The US Federal Reserve has come under pressure from JP Morgan executive Bob Michele – and the US president himself – to cut interest rates. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said high inflation expectations in the US would delay interest rate cuts while some analysts believe that markets may have overestimated the number of cuts due to be made this year. "The Fed is being held back from providing additional policy rate cuts because there is limited evidence that the economy needs immediate additional support," Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, told City AM. "In order to cut rates, the Fed needs to believe that softer growth will exert downward pressure on inflation in the medium term and inflation expectations must remain anchored."

AJ Bell's trading update reveals boom in new customers and assets

AJ Bell has reported a significant growth with assets under administration soaring to £89.5bn by the end of 2024, an indication of the investment platform's appealing eight per cent customer increase over the year. The trading platform enjoyed a 17 per cent surge in assets throughout the previous year, with a three per cent rise in the final quarter, according to its latest trading update, as reported by City AM. The customer base has nearly reached 561,000, largely owing to its direct-to-consumer platform, which saw a four per cent uptick in users during the year's last quarter. The rate at which advised customers expanded was more modest, experiencing a two per cent growth within the same period, bringing the total to 174,000. "During the quarter we continued to see the benefits of our dual-channel model and the high-quality propositions that we offer to both the advised and D2C market segments," commented AJ Bell's chief Michael Summersgill. The investment firm witnessed robust net inflows across both its platform and investments operations during the final quarter, achieving £1.4bn and £400m respectively. Particularly notable was the direct-to-consumer sector, which secured net inflows of £1.1bn, marking a hefty 57 per cent jump from the equivalent quarter in 2023. "Ahead of the October Budget, speculation around the tax treatment of pensions caused a short-term behavioural change among retail investors, which normalised quickly once the content of the Budget became known," Summersgill added. The company's chief executive stated: "The strong start to the year positions us well as we approach the busy tax year end period. We remain focused on the significant long-term growth opportunity that exists in the platform market. Our dual-channel approach and continued investments into our propositions and brand mean we are well-placed to continue our strong growth." AJ Bell recently received an upgrade from Shore Capital, moving from a Hold to a Buy rating, based on the weakness in its share price and the long-term need for people to save for retirement.

Nikhil Rathi secures another five-year term as FCA chief amidst UK regulatory overhaul

Nikhil Rathi has been reappointed as the chief executive of the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) for a further five years, tasked with the government's new mandate to cut back on unnecessary and repetitive regulation, as confirmed by the Chancellor. Rathi, who previously served as a Treasury official and the CEO of the London Stock Exchange, will continue his leadership at the FCA, the UK's principal financial regulator, as reported by City AM. Should he complete this term, Rathi's tenure at the helm of the FCA will reach a full decade. The Chancellor has chosen to maintain stability in the role, highlighting that Rathi's contributions have been "crucial" to the government's ambitious regulatory reform efforts aimed at streamlining the UK's regulatory framework to eliminate perceived impediments to economic expansion. On Christmas Eve, Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer issued a directive to the heads of the UK's ten leading regulatory bodies, urging them to "tear down the regulatory barriers" they believe are constraining economic progress. This initiative to orientate the UK's regulatory bodies towards promoting growth has led to the departure or removal of several regulatory leaders, including those at the Competition and Markets Authority and the Solicitors Regulation Authority. The campaign has also triggered a significant reshuffle within the financial regulatory landscape, exemplified last month by the merger of the Payments Systems Regulator with the FCA, which aims to minimise redundant regulatory obstacles for businesses. Rathi will oversee the seamless integration of the merger. Upon hearing of his reappointment, he commented: "I am honoured to be reappointed by the Chancellor. The FCA does vital work to enable a fair and thriving financial services sector for the good of consumers and the economy." In the previous month, both the FCA and the Bank of England's Prudential Regulation Authority abandoned their initiatives to regulate firms' diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) performance. Reflecting on these actions and other measures to reduce regulatory burden, Rathi stated: "I am proud of the reforms we have delivered to support growth, bolster operational effectiveness, set higher standards and to keep our markets clean and open." Reeves expressed her approval, saying: "Nikhil Rathi has been crucial in this government's efforts to reform regulation so it supports growth and boosts investment – I am delighted he will be continuing his leadership of the FCA."

Lloyds Banking Group to transform head office with £200m investment

Lloyds Banking Group is set to pour £200m into the revamp of the Scottish Widows headquarters, making it the financial giant's primary hub in Scotland. The renovation of the Port Hamilton building on Morrison Street, Edinburgh, executed in collaboration with Drum Property Group, pledges to bolster Lloyds' presence in the Scottish capital where approximately 10,000 staff are based, as reported by City AM. For nearly three decades, the building has served as the core office of Scottish Widows and is expected to retain its role post-upgrade in 2027, continuing to oversee pensions and investments. This eight-storey property, spanning 325,000 sq ft and known for its distinctive curved roof, stands out as an iconic edifice in Edinburgh’s financial district. According to Lloyds, this initiative is part of a broader commitment to cultivate a more sustainable and environmentally friendly office network across the UK, advancing towards their net zero ambitions. This endeavour aligns with the group's previous movements, including last year's full refurbishment of the Bristol office and relocation to Leeds’ most eco-efficient office space. However, earlier this month, City AM detailed Lloyds’ plans to shutter its Liverpool facility later this year, a decision affecting around 500 employees. This closure is seen as part of a wider strategy to maintain "fewer, better-equipped" offices and streamline operational costs. In a statement, Lloyds confirmed that no jobs have been cut as part of the closure plans. Instead, employees at the office will be asked to relocate to its Cawley House office in Chester. The bank added that 80 per cent of employees based in Speke are currently working remotely or will be doing so when the building closes. This news follows reports that senior staff at Lloyds Bank may face bonus cuts if they do not attend the office at least twice a week. Chira Barua, CEO of Scottish Widows, commented: "There’s a real buzz in the fintech scene in Scotland and we’re committed to staying right in the centre of it." He further stated: "We’ve made huge progress in connecting customers with their financial futures and we’re starting to see how powerful digital engagement and gamification will be in the future." He also noted the potential to make a significant difference for customers, saying: "There’s huge potential to help make a real difference for our customers’ lives and we’re right out in front building all the parts we need to innovate in a massive way." Sharon Doherty, chief people and places officer at Lloyds Banking Group, added: "We’re creating modern, inclusive, sustainable and fun workplaces where our people love to work." She also mentioned the improvements made to their offices across the UK, stating: "We’ve already made significant improvements to our offices across the UK, with more to come." "And our redesigned home in the centre of Edinburgh will help us connect, collaborate and spark the creativity to deliver great outcomes for our customers." Graeme Bone, group managing director at Drum Property Group, commented on the £200m redevelopment of Port Hamilton as "The £200m redevelopment of Port Hamilton presents an exceptional opportunity for Lloyds Banking Group to upgrade and enhance one of Edinburgh’s landmark buildings and deliver an exceptional working environment for Lloyds colleagues in an unrivalled location."